Apriori算法中国家具出口产品结构分析

Analysis of Chinese Furniture Export Product Structure Based on Apriori Algorithms

选取2002—2016年的中国家具产品出口数据,利用关联规则挖掘中的Apriori算法,从不同家具种类层次上对家具产品出口量与出口种类之间的关联进行挖掘。分析结果表明:不同种类之间的家具产品在出口量上存在明显的关联。材质层中,其他材料制家具与竹藤家具、塑料家具与金属家具之间有较强的关联规则;用途层中,办公家具与其他用途家具、家具零件与其他用途家具之间有较强的关联规则。底层结果细化反映了材质层与用途层的挖掘结果,也突出了特殊用途家具之间的强关联规则。因此,应该及时掌握国际市场对中国家具产品出口量的潜在需求,对家具出口产品结构进行调整和优化:推出家具出口销售优惠套餐包、促进中小家具出口企业抱团合作和增强家具产业链信息交互。

⑴Background——Since the reform and opening up,China's furniture industry has developed rapidly.But problems such as emerging countries'seizing of international market share and frequent promulgation of trade barrier policies have restricted the development of China's furniture export,and furniture enterprises need to grasp the changes of international market demand more accurately.⑵Methods——Based on the pre-processing and layering of the furniture export data from 2002 to 2016 in China furniture yearbook,this paper use the Apriori algorithm in the association rule mining to mine the types of export furniture from the material layer,the use layer and the bottom layer to find the association rules of different furniture categories in the change of furniture export volume.⑶Results——There are association rules in the export volume of furniture types.The confidence of the results is high when the Min-support meet the requirement,indicating that the mining results have high reliability.In the material layer,the association rule between the furniture made of other materials and bamboo rattan furniture is the strongest.When the export growth rate of furniture made of other materials is within the range of[-0.055,0.357],there is a 100%possibility that the growth rate of export volume of bamboo rattan furniture is within the range of[-0.878,0.086].And for plastic and metal furniture,When the growth rate of export volume of plastic furniture is within the range of[-0.663,-0.011],there is a 100%possibility that the growth rate of metal furniture export is within the range of[-0.165,0.064].In the use layer,the association rule between office furniture and furniture of other uses is the strongest.When the export growth rate of office furniture is within the range of[-0.807,0.218],there is a 92.308%possibility that the growth rate of furniture export of other uses is within the range of[-0.786,0.118].When the export growth rate of furniture parts is within the range of[0.094,0.296],there is a 90.909%possibility that the growth rate of export of office furniture and other uses of furniture is within the range of[-0.807,0.218],[-0.786,0.118]respectively.The mining results of bottom layer are the concrete embodiment of the high-level mining results,and the results are deeper and more detailed than the high-level mining results.In the bottom layer,the association rules between dental chair and its parts,similar chair and its parts for hair cutting,other medical furniture,chair and its parts for hair cutting are the strongest.When the growth rate of any one of the three kinds of furniture exports is in the range of[0.935,1.401]or[0.799,0.704]or[0.801,0.263],there is a 100%possibility of inferring the range of export growth rate for the other two types of furniture.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Furniture enterprises involved in the antecedent and consequent of mining association rules should strengthen cooperation,launch discount package jointly.Driving the export of bamboo rattan and metal furniture,so as to better adapt to the needs of the international market.There should be a team work between small and medium-sized furniture enterprises,sharing export information.And carry out brand integration to enhance international competitiveness.Additionally,promoting collaboration between the furniture industry.Making full use of information network technology to build information interactive platform.Furthermore,strengthen the coordinated development of industrial chains and help enterprises make scientific decisions.