风险态度、风险感知对农户农地流转行为影响分析——基于豫鲁皖冀苏1429户农户面板数据

Impacts of Risk Attitude and Risk Perception on Land Transfer——Based on Panel Data of 1 429Households in Henan,Shandong,Hebei,Anhui,and Jiangsu

农地流转不仅涉及预期收益和成本等经济问题,还关系到农民的社会心理问题,分析风险态度和风险感知对农户农地流转行为的影响,为全面推动中国农地流转,使其跳出内卷化陷阱具有重要的意义。基于河南、山东、安徽、河北、江苏5省15县1429户农户面板数据,就农地流转行为进行面板Logit模型、面板有序Logit模型及面板Tobit模型随机效应回归,并检验风险态度的中介效应。结果显示,风险规避态度对农户转入决策及转入规模有显著负向影响,对农地转出决策及转出地占比有显著正向影响,风险感知是重要的中介变量;去除风险规避态度的效用,风险感知对农户农地流转决策和流转规模仍有显著负向影响;流转租金上涨及农产品价格波动加剧了农户对转入土地的风险感知,降低了土地转入意愿,是我国农地流转内卷化的重要原因。因此,建议加大各类保险的覆盖范围及赔偿力度,建立农地流转价格指导机制,完善农产品价格形成机制,以推动农地流转市场健康快速发展。

Land transfer involves economic issues like expected costs and benefits and the social issue as farmers’social psychology.It is of great importance to explore the impacts of farmers’risk attitude and risk perception on their land transfer behaviors and give a reasonable explanation for the involution trap of land rental markets.Based on panel data of 1429 households from 15 counties in Henan,Shandong,Anhui,Hebei and Jiangsu,we made empirical regressions with logit,ordered-logit and tobit models,and tested the mediating effect of risk attitude.The results show that farmers’risk aversion attitude had a significantly negative effect on the land renting-in decision,but a significantly positive effect on the land renting-out decision,among which risk perception played a mediating effect.With risk attitude controlled,risk perception still played a negative effect on farmers’land transfer decisions and scales.The increasing land rental fee and fluctuating grain price increased farmers’risk perception and hampered farmers’willingness to rent-in land,which explained the involution trap of land rental markets.To assure the stable and healthy development of land rental markets,we suggest the Chinese government widen the coverage of agricultural insurances,increase the scale of compensation,establish a guidance mechanism for the land rental price,and maintain the agricultural commodity price with a more efficient price forming mechanismp so as to accelerate the development of land transfer market in a healthy and rapid way.