西藏金融发展水平测度及其对西藏经济增长的贡献度研究

The Measurement of Tibet’s Financial Development Level and its Contribution to Tibet’s Economic Growth

文章选取西藏自治区1991年至2016年的金融机构存贷款余额比值和股票筹资额、保费收入、社会消费品零售总额、金融业增加值、金融机构存款余额与贸易总额分别占GDP的比重作为衡量指标,构建熵权法测算模型,计算出1998年至2016年西藏的金融业综合发展水平和各指标的权重;选取西藏1998年至2016年的GDP增长率作为经济增长的衡量指标,运用Eviews8软件,通过ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验和格兰杰检验进行计量检验与实证结果分析。研究发现,西藏地区经济发展相对落后,工业化和城镇化水平相对低下,金融发展相对滞后,自治区金融与经济发展的不完全同步,经济与金融聚集情况差距较大;并据此提出深化西藏自治区金融体制改革,提高金融资源配置效率等建议,以期实现西藏自治区金融发展与经济发展良好的互动机制。

This article selects the ratio of loan deposit and loan balances of financial institutions,the amount of stock raised,premium income,total retail sales of social consumer goods,added value of financial industry in Tibet Autonomous Region from 1991 to 2016.The proportion of deposit balance and total trade in GDP of financial institutions was taken as the measurement index,and entropy weight method calculation model was established to calculate the comprehensive development level of Tibet’s financial industry from 1998 to 2016 and the weight of each index.The GDP growth rate of Tibet from 1998 to 2016 was selected as the measurement index of economic growth.Eviews8 Software was used to conduct econometric tests and empirical analysis through ADF Unit Root Test,Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Test.The study found that Tibet’s economic development is relatively backward,the level of industrialization and urbanization is relatively low,the financial development is relatively backward,the autonomous region’s financial and economic development is not completely synchronized,and the gap between economic and financial aggregation is large.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward,such as deepening the reform of Tibet autonomous region’s financial system and improving the efficiency of financial resources allocation,so as to realize a good interaction mechanism between Tibet autonomous region’s financial development and economic development.