基于通用分布的光伏发电系统出力模型的研究

Research on output model of photovoltaic power generation system based on versatile distribution

光伏发电系统出力模型具有广泛的用途,最重要的用途是在给定的一组气象条件下预测光伏发电系统的输出功率,是实现光伏功率准确预测的重要环节。此外,光伏发电系统出力模型还广泛用于光伏发电系统组件预购比较、系统状态监测以及投资回报时间等方面。建立了基于通用分布的光伏发电系统出力概率模型,通过对历史辐照度分箱、采用通用分布对各箱内实际出力拟合以及逆变换抽样,构造了刻画光伏出力的概率场景集;进一步提出了基于辐照度分箱的温度校正系数对模型进行修正。以实际光伏数据对模型进行了检验,结果表明该模型计算速度快,计算精度高,具有较高的实际应用价值。

Photovoltaic power generation system output models have a wide range of uses.The most important use is to predict the output power of photovoltaic power generation systems under a given set of meteorological conditions,which is an important part of accurate PV power prediction.In addition,the photovoltaic power generation system output model is also widely used in photovoltaic power system component pre-purchase comparison,system state monitoring and investment return time.In this paper,the output probability model of photovoltaic power generation system based on versatile distribution is established.By setting the historical irradiance binning,using the versatile distribution to the actual output fitting in each bin and inverse transform sampling,a set of probability scenes depicting the photovoltaic output is constructed.Further,the temperature correction coefficient based on the irradiance binning is proposed to correct the model.Finally,the model is tested with actual PV data.The results show that the model has fast calculation speed,high calculation accuracy and high practical application value.