基于ARIMA模型的吐鲁番市葡萄产量预测分析

Prediction and analysis of Turpan grape yield based on ARIMA model

党的十九大报告指出我国社会主要矛盾已经发生变化。从我国社会主要矛盾的变更可以看出,随着人民生活水平的日益提高,人们对水果的需求量逐渐增大。而新疆是全国面积最大的省,也是农业发展较好的省份,新疆吐鲁番市是我国最大的葡萄生产基地,堪称"世界葡萄植物园",葡萄产量分析对吐鲁番市葡萄产业的健康、可持续发展具有非常重要的意义。基于吐鲁番市葡萄产业现状,以1988-2017年的新疆吐鲁番市葡萄产量数据为依托,利用ARIMA模型对2018-2020年的葡萄产量进行预测。研究发现:ARIMA(3,2,1)模型的预测误差测度指标都较小且预测区间呈现喇叭形,这是时间序列预测的典型特点。因此,该模型对于吐鲁番市葡萄产量序列预测的效果还是较为准确的。

The report to the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that the principal contradiction in Chinese society has changed. It can be seen from the change of the principal contradiction in our society that, with the increasing improvement of people’s living standards, people’s demand for fruit is gradually increasing.Xinjiang is a province with the largest area in China and a province with better agricultural development. Turpan city of xinjiang is the largest grape production base in China and can be called "world grape botanical garden". Grape yield analysis is of great significance to the healthy and sustainable development of the grape industry in turpan city. Based on the current situation of Turpan grape industry and the grape yield data of Xinjiang turpan from 1988 to 2017, ARIMA model is used to predict the grape yield of 2018 to 2020. It is found that the prediction error measure index of ARIMA(3, 2,1) model is small and the prediction interval is flared, which is a typical feature of time series prediction.Therefore, this model is relatively accurate in predicting grape yield sequence in turpan.