基于系统动力学的煤矿投入管理仿真分析

Simulation Analysis of Coal Mine Input Management based on System Dynamics

为准确预测宽沟煤矿健康发展系统的稳定性运动趋势,综合分析了影响系统稳定性的20个影响因子,并将其划分为5个子系统。利用系统动力学原理及Vensim软件建立了仿真模型(SD模型),分析了各影响因子之间的相互影响关系及其与子系统之间的反馈关系,绘制出因果回路图与存量流量图;应用优序图法(PC)对影响因子及子系统的权重进行分析,并结合安全等级评价标准及专家评分确定了SD模型参数;运用Vensim软件分别对影响因子及子系统进行不同投入方案的模拟预测,得出各子系统中最主要的影响因子,以及决定煤矿健康发展系统稳定性的关键子系统,并确定出最佳的投入方案。分析结果表明,为提高煤矿健康发展系统的稳定性,宽沟煤矿需要对系统管理能力、先进设备投入、科技人才引进和安全教育培训4个方面加大投入力度,并将投入重点放在科研投入方面。

In order to accurately predict the stability movement trend of the healthy development system of Kuangou Coal Mine,20 factors affecting the stability of the system were analyzed comprehensively and divided into 5 subsystems.The simulation model(SD model)was established by using the principle of system dynamics and Vensim software.Firstly,the interaction relationship between each influence factor and its feedback relationship with the subsystem were analyzed,and the causal loop diagram and the stock flow diagram were drawn;secondly,the influence factors and the weight of subsystems were analyzed by priority map method(PC),and the parameters of SD model were determined based on the security level evaluation criteria and expert scores;finally,Vensim software was used to simulate and predict impact factors and subsystems under different input schemes,and the main influence factor of each subsystem,as well as the key subsystem that determined the stability of the healthy development system of coal mine were obtained,and the optimal input scheme was determined.The analysis results show that in order to improve the stability of the mine health development system,Kuangou Coal Mine needs to increase the investment in four aspects:system management capabilities,investment in advanced equipment,introduction of scientific and technological talents and safety education and training,and focus on scientific research investment.