货币政策不确定性与银行信贷决策——基于新闻报道文本分析的实证研究

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Banks’ Credit Decisions:An Empirical Study Based on the Textual Analysis of News Coverage

基于对网络新闻报道文本分析测度中国货币政策不确定性,并运用2008-2017年中国上市商业银行数据实证考察中国货币政策不确定性对银行信贷决策的影响,研究结果表明,货币政策不确定性对银行信贷供给有显著的抑制效应。货币政策不确定性增加时,商业银行会降低信贷供给,同时通过调整信贷结构来降低信贷风险,偏向于发放风险较低的短期贷款和担保贷款。货币当局应保持货币政策的稳定性,主动防范和化解政策冲击带来的负面影响,以期更好地促进金融良性循环、保持经济持续健康发展。

Based on textual analysis of online news coverage,this study measured the uncertainty of China s monetary policy.Using data of Chinese listed commercial banks from 2008 to 2017,this study empirically examined the effect of uncertainty regarding Chinas monetary policy on banksxcredit decisions.The results revealed that monetary policy uncertainty had a significant suppressive effect on bank credit supply.Specifically,with a rise in monetary policy uncertainty,banks decreased credit supply,adjusted the credit structure to reduce credit risks,and issued low-risk short-term loans and guaranteed loans.Therefore,to promote the virtuous cycle of finance and maintain sustainable and healthy development of the national economy,authorities should maintain the stability of monetary policy and proactively prevent and mitigate the negative impact of monetary policy.