科技创新投入与经济增长动态机制实证研究

An Empirical Analysis of China’s S&T Innovation Investment and Economic Growth

基于1995-2016年统计数据,运用主成分分析和VAR模型对中国科技创新投入与经济增长之间动态关系进行分析。结果显示,GDP增长率和科技创新投入增长率之间存在一定均衡关系;科技创新投入增长率构成了GDP增长率的格兰杰原因,但GDP增长率并没有构成科技创新投入增长率的格兰杰原因;GDP增长率和科技创新投入增长率之间存在比较敏感的双向动态关系,科技创新投入增长率对GDP增长率影响更大。并提出政策建议:创造良好科技创新政策环境,稳定科技投入增长;完善创新成果激励体制;促进创新要素流动;完善创新成果保护机制。

There is a close relationship between technological progress and economic growth. Based on the statistical data of China from 1995 to 2016, the principal component analysis and VAR model were used to analyze the dynamic relationship between China’s science and technology innovation investment and economic growth. The analysis results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between GDP growth rate and science and technology innovation input growth rate;the growth rate of science and technology innovation investment constitutes the Granger cause of GDP growth rate, but the GDP growth rate does not constitute the growth rate of science and technology innovation investment. The reason for Granger: there is a relatively sensitive two-way dynamic relationship between GDP growth rate and the growth rate of science and technology innovation investment. The growth rate of science and technology innovation investment has a greater impact on GDP growth rate. The policy recommendations based on the above conclusions include: creating a sound science and technology innovation policy environment, stabilizing the growth of science and technology investment;improving the incentive system for innovation results;promoting the flow of innovation factors;and improving the protection mechanism for innovation results.