科技支出对经济增长影响的面板分位数模型计算与分析——283个市级地区的检验

Calculation and Analysis of Panel Quantile Model for the Impact of Science and Technology Expenditure on Economic Growth——Inspection of 283 Municipal Districts

选择283个市级地区(含4个直辖市)作样本,建立面板数据分位数模型,针对不同城市发展水平深入探析科技支出对经济增长的作用。结果显示:在任何经济发展阶段,科技支出对于经济增长都具有明显的正向作用,科技支出增加1个百分点将使GDP大约提高0.4%~0.44%,说明增加科技支出是促进经济增长的必要途径;当GDP规模较小时,科技支出对GDP贡献更大,这说明对处于经济发展水平较低阶段的地区来说,要更加重视对科学技术的投入,充分发挥科技提升对经济增长的巨大推动作用;相比于当年实际使用外资额、地区人口数量、固定资产投资、城镇化率,科技支出的作用弹性最大,而且非常显著,表明科技支出对GDP的贡献最高。经济基础较薄弱地区要加大科技支出力度,经济中等和偏上地区要保持科技支出稳定,经济发达地区要优化科技支出结构。

This paper selects 283 municipal districts(including four municipalities) as samples, establishes panel data quantile-model, and deeply analyzes the effect of science & technology expenditure on economic growth according to the development level of different cities. The results show that at any stage of economic development, science and technology expenditure has a significant positive effect on economic growth, and an increase of 1 percentage point in science and technology expenditure will increase GDP by about 0.4% ~ 0.44%, it shows that increasing science and technology expenditure is a necessary way to promote economic growth;when GDP is small, science and technology expenditure contributes more to GDP, which shows that special attention should be paid to investment in science and technology for regions at a lower level of economic development, we will give full play to the role of scientific and technological upgrading in driving economic growth. Compared with the amount of foreign capital actually used, the number of people in the region, the investment in fixed assets, and the rate of urbanization in the current year, the role of scientific and technological expenditure is the most flexible, and it is very significant, shows that technology spending contributes the most to GDP. We should increase science and technology expenditure in weak areas, keep science and technology expenditure stable in middle and upper areas, and optimize the structure of science and technology expenditure in developed areas.