趋势分析在塔里木河水资源监管系统中的应用

Application of Trend Analysis in the Tarim River Water Resources Supervision System

水资源情势分析对水资源管理的科学性和精准性、对水资源管理与调度过程及变化情势的监管都有极为重要的意义。基于对水资源业务需求的详细分析与趋势分析方法的应用研究,设计开发了通用水资源趋势分析系统。该系统解决了长期以来趋势分析研究与实际水资源管理业务应用脱节的问题,为海量水文水资源数据的价值利用提出了新的思路,为分析水资源过去、现在和未来的变化情势提供了方法。该系统利用成熟的时间序列趋势分析方法,搭建通用趋势分析算法库,实现灵活可定制的趋势分析功能。以塔里木河流域管理局综合业务应用平台为实例,实现了该系统功能的集成与应用,实现了水资源管理业务所需的多对象、多要素、多尺度的综合趋势分析功能。

The analysis of water resources situation is of vital importance to the scientificity and precision of water resources management, the process of water resources management and dispatching and the supervision of changing situations. Based on the analysis of water resources business requirement and application research of trend analysis method, a general water resources trend analysis system was designed and de veloped. The system solved the problem of disconnection between trend analysis and practical application of water resources management for a long time, put forward new ideas for the value utilization of massive hydrological and water resources data and provided a method for analyzing the changes of water resources in the past, present and future. By using mature time series trend analysis method, the system built a general trend analysis algorithm library and realized flexible and customizable trend analysis function. Taking the Business Application Platform of Ta rim River Basin Management Bureau as an example, the integration and application of the system functions were realized, and the multi ob ject, multi element and multi scale comprehensive trend analysis functions required for water resources management business were realized.