外部监督影响家庭消费吗——基于准自然实验的实证研究

Does External Regulation Affect Household Consumption?——Empirical Research Based on Quasi-natural Experiments

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用双重差分法估计了"八项规定"这一外生冲击对家庭消费的平均处理效应。研究发现,冲击后,受影响家庭的总消费、食品消费和在家就餐消费显著增加,根据实证结果推断,在随后的两年里,该冲击导致相关家庭总消费增加3275亿元。进一步研究发现,该冲击促使政府部门、事业单位和国有企业员工所在家庭的总消费显著提高,对事业单位和国有企业员工所在家庭的食品消费和在家就餐消费有显著的正影响,对领导干部家庭消费具有显著的正向影响。本文认为,"八项规定"限制了公共部门在职员工的公款消费,但消费者的消费行为通常具有状态依赖性,故最终表现为其家庭的消费支出增加,扩大了家庭部门的消费需求。

Based on the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS) data, this paper uses the"difference-in-differences,DID"to estimate the average treatment effect of the quasi-natural experiment of"Eight-Point"on household consumption.The study finds that the policy shock had a significant positive impact on household total consumption, food consumption,and the consumption of meals at home. Based on this, we inferred that in the following two years, this shock led to an increase of 327.5 billion yuan in total household consumption. Further research finds that this shock significantly increased the total consumption of those households whose members work in the government departments, public institutions and state-owned enterprises, and significantly increased food consumption and home-made meals of those households whose members work in public institutions and state-owned enterprises. The food consumption of households in government departments and the consumption of home-made meals were not significantly affected. This policy also has a significantly positive effect on household consumption of households of leaders. This paper holds that"Eight-Point"limited perk of employees of public sector, household consumption will finally rise because of the state-dependent of consumers and consumer demand in the household sector has thus expanded. This paper estimates the impact of an exogenous shock on household consumption, which helps clarify the roles of policy in different sectors,and is an important supplement to the existing literature.