集群政策对产业集群升级的驱动效应研究——基于系统动力学模型

On the Driving Effect of Cluster Policy on the Industrial Cluster Upgrade——Based on System Dynamics Model

集群政策在产业集群升级中具有重要的引导和支持作用。在阐述集群政策影响集群升级机理的基础上,识别影响齐鲁软件园这一特定集群升级的四种政策,构建了集群政策影响集群升级的系统动力学模型,并分析不同政策组合对集群升级的驱动效应。研究结果表明:集群政策对集群升级具有正向促进作用;单一集群政策中,税收优惠为最优政策;两种政策的组合中,税收优惠与科技政策的组合更能够满足集群升级的需求;税收优惠、科技政策及金融机构贷款的组合为三政策组合中的最优组合;政府在选择集群政策时,应当注重政策的质量而非数量。

Cluster policy plays an important guiding and supporting role in the industrial cluster upgrade.On the basis of explaining the effect mechanism of cluster policy on cluster upgrade,this paper identifies four kinds of policies affecting the upgrade of Qilu Software Park,and builds a system dynamics model,by which the driving effect of different policy combinations on cluster upgrade is analyzed.The results show that:cluster policy has a positive effect on cluster upgrade;tax preference is the best policy in single cluster policy;tax preference and science and technology policy combined can better meet the needs of cluster upgrade in the combination of two policies;the combination of tax preference,science and technology policy and loans from financial institutions is the best of the three policy combinations;in the choice of cluster policy,the government should lay emphasis on the quality rather than quantity of the policy.