全球生产分工体系下隐含能源跨境转移研究

Research on the cross-border transfer of embodied energy under global production division system

本文通过构建能源多区域投入产出模型,利用WIOD世界投入产出表数据,讨论了全球及主要经济体的隐含能源消耗情况,重点根据三大类国际贸易模式的不同引致作用对隐含能源消耗进行分解,分析了中国对外贸易中涉及的隐含能源跨境转移情况。文章将一国隐含能源消耗总量分解为两大部分:一是通过国内经济活动引致的隐含能源消耗量;二是通过国际贸易活动引致的隐含能源消耗量,后者又分为最终产品贸易、中间品贸易、全球价值链贸易等三种不同贸易模式相关的隐含能源消耗量,而全球价值链贸易相关项进一步按照最终是否转移到本国而被分解为两小类。研究发现:①全球国际贸易相关的隐含能源消耗量占消耗总量的比率约23%,中间品贸易模式相关份额占其中的近一半,约11%,GVC贸易模式相关的份额具有“基数小、增长快”的特点。②各国隐含能源消耗按照不同贸易模式分解后的结构呈多元化,不同贸易模式相关的隐含能源转移份额差异很大,根本原因是各国在全球生产分工体系中的位置不同。从出口端来看,中、法、德三国主要通过最终品贸易模式,其余七国主要通过中间品贸易模式;从进口端来看,俄罗斯主要通过最终品贸易模式,其余九国主要通过中间品贸易模式。③中国是隐含能源净出口国,尤其是向发达国家出口了较多的隐含能源,实则扮演着“资源中枢”的角色。在全球经济一体化程度日益深化的今天,指责中国“资源环境威胁论”完全站不住脚。

This paper discusses the embodied energy consumption of the global and major economies by constructing an energy multi-region input-output model based on the World Input-Output Table data published by WIOD,and focuses on the decomposition of embodied energy consumption according to the different causes of the three major international trade patterns.It also involves an analysis of the embodied energy transfer in China’s foreign trade.The article decomposes a country’s total embodied energy consumption into two parts:one is the embodied energy consumption caused by domestic economic activities;the other is the embodied energy consumption caused by international trade activities,and the latter is divided into three parts related to different trade modes,such as product trade,intermediate trade,and global value chain(GVC)trade,and GVC trade-related items are further broken down into two sub-categories according to whether they are eventually transferred to the original country.We find that:First,in the global world,embodied energy consumption caused by the international trade accounts for 23%of the total,and the intermediate product trade model accounts for nearly half of the total,about 11%,while the GVC trade model share presents characteristics of‘small scale but fast growth’.Second,the structure of embodied energy consumption in various countries is diversified according to different trade patterns,due to the fact that countries have different positions in the global production division system.From the export side,China,France and Germany mainly adopt the final product trade model,while the other seven countries adopt the intermediate product trade model.From the import side,Russia mainly adopts the final product trade model,and the other nine countries mainly adopt the intermediate product trade model.Last,China is a net exporter of hidden energy,especially exporting more embodied energy to developed countries,but in fact it just plays the role of‘resource hub’.With the deepening of global economic integration,accusing China of the‘resource and environment threat theory’is increasingly untenable.