中国省域人口集聚、公共资源配置与服务业发展时空耦合及驱动因素

Spatial-temporal coupling and driving factors of provincial population aggregation,public resource allocation and service industry development in China

本文在分析人口集聚、公共资源配置与服务业发展三者耦合协调机理上,构建了三者耦合协调度评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关和灰色关联度模型,探讨了2007—2016年中国31个省区市人口集聚、公共资源配置与服务业发展综合水平及三者耦合协调度时空异质特征,分析了影响三者耦合协调度变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:①各省区市人口集聚、公共资源配置与服务业发展综合水平总体均呈现上升趋势,但三者阶段间及内部发展速度存在差异。②三者耦合协调度呈明显逐步上升态势,省际差异逐渐缩小,总体从勉强协调进入初步协调,其中东部地区率先进入中级协调,空间上呈现东部>东北>西部>中部的发展格局。③三者耦合协调度在省际尺度上表现出显著的全局与局部自相关特征,随时间呈现出集聚-分散-集聚的发展走势,强强集聚与弱弱集聚的空间俱乐部趋同特征明显。④影响三者耦合协调度的驱动因素具有明显的地域差异,其驱动因素作用强度按投资拉动、人口素质、经济驱动、政府调控和产业结构依次递减。本研究旨在为评估中国省域人口集聚、公共资源配置与服务业协调发展提供一定的定量依据,从而为新时代下新型城镇化高质量建设奠定一定的科学决策基础。

On the basis of analyzing the coupling coordination mechanism between population agglomeration,public resource allocation and service industry,this paper established an evaluation index system of coupling coordination degree between the above three subsystems.By applying coupling coordination degree model,spatial auto-correlation model and grey correlation model,it explored the evolution of the comprehensive development between population agglomeration,public resource allocation and service industry,discussed the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of coupling coordination degree between the three subsystems in 31 provinces of China from 2007 to 2016,and then analyzed the main driving factors to affect the change of coupling coordination degree.The results showed that:①The overall level of provincial population agglomeration,public resource allocation and service industry development generally had an increasing trend,but there were differences between the three stages and the internal development speed.②Coupling coordination degree between the three subsystems gradually displayed an upward trend,and the provincial differences were gradually narrowing,entering the initial coordination stage from the barely coordination stage;the eastern region was the first to enter the intermediate coordination stage,and at the spatial level,it had development pattern of‘eastern region>northeast region>western region>central region’.③Coupling coordination degree had significant global and local auto-correlation features at provincial level and showed the development trend of aggregation–dispersion–aggregation over time.The spatial club convergence feature of strong-strong and weak-weak aggregation was obvious.④Obvious regional differences existed in the driving factors influencing the coupling coordination degree between the three subsystems,and the strength of driving factors decreased in the sequence of investment drive,population quality,economic drive,government regulation and industrial structure.This study provided a quantitative basis to evaluate the coordination development between the provincial population agglomeration,public resource allocation and service industry,and to lay scientific decision-making foundation for the high-quality construction of new urbanization in the new era.