考虑不确定需求的应急避难场所选址研究

Research on Locations of Emergency Shelters Considering Uncertain Demands

为了研究不确定避难需求对应急避难场所选址的影响,首先,通过离散场景表征避难需求的不确定性,考虑决策者对于优化期望情形与最坏情形的偏好,引入期望情形权重与最坏情形权重。其次,以避难场所建设成本与加权的期望情形、最坏情形运输成本之和最小为目标,构建了一个鲁棒随机规划模型来确定避难场所选址以及居民点疏散者对避难场所的分配。最后,通过灾害场景设计与数值实验,分析了不同期望情形权重与最坏情形权重对避难场所布局的影响。结果表明:如果决策者偏好基于最坏情形来优化避难场所选址,则需要建立更多的避难场所,产生更高的建设成本与总成本;反之,如果决策者偏好基于期望情形来优化避难场所选址,则需要建立更少的避难场所,产生更低的建设成本与总成本。

To study the impacts of uncertain shelter demands on emergency shelter locations,the uncertainty of shelter demands is represented by discrete scenarios firstly.By considering the preferences of decision makers for optimizing expectation and worst cases,the weights of expectation and worst cases are introduced.Moreover,a robust-stochastic programming model is established to determine the location of shelters and the allocation of evacuees of residential communities to shelters,with the objective of minimizing the sum of the setup cost of shelters and the weighted transportation cost for expectation and worst cases.Finally,via the design of disaster scenarios and numerical experiments,the impacts of different weights of expectation and worst cases on shelter layouts are analyzed.Results show that if decision makers prefer to optimize shelter locations based on the worst case,then more shelters will be established,resulting in higher setup costs and total costs.Conversely,if decision makers prefer to optimize shelter locations based on the expectation case,then fewer shelters will be established,resulting in lower setup costs and total costs.