全球气候变化系统性风险与“气候明斯基时刻”

Global Climate Change Systemic Risk and “Climate Minsky Moment”

全球气候变化系统性风险是指全球气候变化给整个人类社会带来的系统性风险。全球气候变化系统性风险具有普遍性、不可预测性与内生关联性,局部风险可能演变为系统性风险。全球气候变化系统性风险集中爆发的时候,就是“气候明斯基时刻”。在气候治理过程中,政策制定者不仅要关注风险发生的概率,还要评估不同应对策略的失误所导致的损益变化。基于最小风险的贝叶斯决策表明,应对气候变化的策略取决于气候事件发生的先验概率、对气候特征的认知能力、风险脆弱性评估、经济系统暴露程度以及可用的政策工具等因素。应对气候变化系统性风险的关键在于发现气候变化局部风险之间的关联性,为此,应当加深世界各国特别是发展中国家对气候变化局部风险之间的关联性的认识,并采取切实有效的应对手段。

Global climate change systemic risk refers to the systemic risk that global climate change brings to the entire human society,which is universal,unpredictable and endogenous.Local risks in climate change may evolve into systemic risks.The“Climate Minsky Moment”is the moment that the global climate change systemic risk occurs.In the process of climate governance,policy makers should not only pay attention to the probability of occurrence of risks,but also assess the changes in profit and loss caused by the mistakes of different coping strategies.Bayesian decision making based on minimum risk indicates that the strategy to deal with climate change depends on the prior probability of climate events,cognitive ability to climate characteristics,risk vulnerability assessment,economic system exposure and available policy instruments.The key to addressing the systemic risk of climate change is to discover the correlation between the local risks of climate change.To the end,the understanding of the relationship between local risks of climate change should be deepened by countries all over the world,especially developing countries.And effective means of response should be adopted.