洪水诱发下化工园区储罐失效概率研究分析

Study and Analysis on the Failure Probability of the Storage Tank in the Chemical Park under the Influence of Flood Disaster

为研究洪水灾害作用下化工园区储罐事故的演化机理,首先进行危险因素识别,然后建立了洪水诱发下化工园区储罐事故演化Bowtie模型,结合已有文献数据开展实证分析,得到了立式、卧式储罐蒸气云爆炸、闪燃、泄漏、火球和池火灾事件发生概率。计算结果表明,洪水深度相比于洪水速度对立式、卧式储罐失效泄漏各结果事件发生概率影响更为明显;洪水情景1#的高深度洪水诱发下常压立式储罐相对于卧式储罐更容易发生事故;除了泄漏事件,常压储罐火灾爆炸等后果事件概率要大于加压储罐,且泄漏事件是所有结果事件中发生概率最大的事件。

In this paper,the evolution mechanism of the storage tank accidents that are resulted from flood disaster in the chemical park.Firstly,the hazards were identified through analyzing the influence factors.Secondly,the Bowtie model of the tank accident was established.Finally,the occurrence probability of accident such as vapor cloud explosion,flash fire,leakage,fireball and pool fire was obtained based on previous data.The results show that the flood’s deep is more distinct to give rise to the occurrence of tank leakage than the flood’s speed;vertical tank is easier to incur an accident than the horizontal one under the atmospheric pressure in the scenario 1;the occurrence probability of fire and explosion in atmospheric tank is higher than that of pressure tank in addition to leakage accident;and the leakage has the highest probability in the all events.