撤县(市)设区对工业地价的影响——来自浙江省上虞市的经验

Influence of city-county merger on the industrial land price:an experience from Shangyu City of Zhejiang Province

基于2012年第3季度到2016年第4季度手工搜集的浙江省县级经济面板数据,运用合成控制法,考察了撤县(市)设区对浙江上虞工业地价的影响。结果显示:撤县(市)设区使工业地价打破了原本波动上升的规律,呈波动下降态势,且工业地价真实值在经历三轮下跌后与预测值的差距越拉越大,该结果通过了安慰剂检验法的稳健性检验和平均误差检验法的显著性检验。据此认为,撤县(市)设区政策对新型城镇化的作用是毋庸置疑的,但需要警惕地方政府官员为追求晋升而借助该政策干扰土地市场健康运转的风险。

County-level economic panel data of Zhejiang Province spanning from the third quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2016 are manually collected to examine the influence of city-county mergering on industrial land prices of Shangyu District using the synthetic control methods.The results show that following the implementation of the city-county mergering policy in Shangyu District,the industrial land prices exhibite a departure from the previous fluctuating upward trend towards a fluctuating downward trend,and the gaps of the real values of industrial land prices with the expected values have been increasingly widened after three rounds of price drops.These results pass the robustness check based on a placebo test and the significance test using the average error test.Based on the above results,this essay argues that while the influence of city-county mergering policy on the new-style urbanization is beyond question,cautions should be paid to prevent local government from interfering with the normal operations of the land market using the policy in order to seek political promotions.