山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析方法:以山区雨雾天气为例

Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas:taking rain and fog weather for example

为完善多要素风险作用下山区公路交通事故与风险分析的理论与方法,提出一种基于脆弱性面与风险要素联合重现期的山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析模型,并选取典型的云南山区公路交通中的雨雾天气进行实例分析。首先建立表示风险要素强度与损失间关系的脆弱性面模型;然后建立基于copula的风险要素分析模型;最后计算并得到4个案例研究路段在雨雾综合作用下交通参与者死亡损失的风险曲线。结果表明:山区公路交通风险在多要素风险综合作用下危害性急剧上升,通过案例研究证明提出的综合分析方法可量化山区公路交通风险的绝对值。

In order to improve the analytic theory and method of highway traffic accidents and risks under the influence of multiple factors,a comprehensive analytic model of multi-factor risks of traffic accidents in mountain area was proposed based on the joint return period of vulnerability surface and risk factors,and the typical rain and fog weather in mountainous highway traffic of Yunnan province was selected for case study.Firstly,a vulnerability surface model was established to represent the relationship between the strength of risk factors and the losses.Secondly,a copula-based risk factor analytic model was established.Finally,the risk curves of traffic participants'loss of life under the combined influence of multiple factors of rain and fog in four case study sections were obtained.The results show that the risk of highway traffic in mountainous area increases sharply under the influence of multi-hazard risk,and that the comprehensive analysis method proposed can quantify the absolute value of risks.