长江经济带能源消费和经济增长的灰色关联分析

The Grey Correlation Analysis of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

为深入了解长江经济带能源消费与经济增长的关系,研究基于灰色关联分析模型,利用1995-2015年能源消费与经济增长相关数据,对长江经济带能源消费与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析。结果表明:在能源消费产业中,批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业能源消费与经济增长的关联度最大,为0.88,农业、工业能源消费与经济增长的关联度最小,分别为0.50、0.52;在能源消费品种中,煤碳消费量与经济增长的关联度相对较小;以天然气和电力为代表的优质能源与经济增长具有显著的关联度。研究提出长江经济带应着力调整产业结构、优化能源消费结构,以实现绿色低碳循环发展。

To understand the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of the Yangtze River Economic Zone, based on the data related to the energy consumption and the economic growth of the region from 1995 to 2015, an empirical analysis of their correlation are conducted. As indicated by the results,among all the energy consumption industries, the wholesale and retail industry and the accommodation and catering industry have the highest correlation degree with the economic growth, which is 0.88. The energy consumption of agriculture and industry has the lowest correlation degree with the economic growth, which is0.50 and 0.52 respectively. Among all the energy consumption types, the correlation degree between the coal consumption and the economic growth is relatively low, while high quality energy like natural gas and electricity have an obvious correlation degree with the economic growth. In conclusion, the Yangtze River Economic Zone should make efforts to adjust the industrial structure and optimize the energy consumption structure in order to achieve green and low-carbon cycle development.