基于Logit模型的民航和铁路竞争距离再审视

Reexamination of Competition Distance between Civil Aviation and Railway based on Logit Model

本文采集了2010年铁路与民航的实际重叠线路的信息,对我国城市对之间空铁实际运营距离的空间差异进行了实证分析,并对既有空铁客流分担率预测模型的距离因素进行改进,对比分析了预测模型改进前后的预测结果差异。研究发现,铁路和民航实际运营距离的数值差异较大,且存在较为显著的空间差异;改进后的预测模型更有利于发现空铁竞争下的差异化市场分布。最后,本文建议多采用事后实证研究对空铁竞争市场进行具体案例分析,以便更好地为区域交通的发展提供切实的研究支撑。

The paper collects the overlapping lines of railway and civil aviation information of 2010 and analyses the spatial differences of the actual operating distance of civil aviation and railway between cities. In addition, the paper improves the distance factor in Logit models and compare the differences of the prediction results before and after changing the distance factor. The research shows that real distance of civil aviation and railways has great difference, and there also exists prominent geospatial difference;the improved prediction model is more conducive to discover the differential market distribution between the railway and civil aviation.