我国研究生教育规模与经济发展水平间的非线性关系研究

Research on Nonlinear Relationship between Postgraduate Education Scale and Economic Development in China

以往关于研究生教育规模与经济发展或经济增长之间影响关系的定量研究均是将GDP相关指标与研究生教育规模间关系先验性地设定为一次线性影响形式进行分析并得出研究结论.但两者之间存在一次线性关系,还是非线性关系,需要我们依据具体数据进行相关检验与分析才能得出结论.采用Dicks&Panchenko(2006)提出的非参数方法检验我国研究生在学人数与人均实际GDP间的非线性Granger因果关系结果表明,实际人均GDP是研究生在学人数变化的非线性Granger原因,而研究生在学人数在某种程度上也是实际人均GDP的非线性Granger原因.实证研究结论为今后关于研究生教育规模变量和经济发展水平变量的研究模型构建中二者间具体关系的设定提供了重要启示.

In the past,quantitative researches on the relationship between postgraduate education scale and economic development or economic growth was conducted by a priori linear analysis of the relationship between GDP-related indicators and postgraduate education scale and the conclusion was reached.However,there is a linear relationship between the two,or a nonlinear relationship.We need to conduct the related test and analysis based on specific data to get the conclusion.Nonparametric method proposed by Dicks & Panchenko(2006) is used to test the nonlinear Granger causality between the number of postgraduates in study and the real GDP per capita in China.The results show that the real GDP per capita is the nonlinear Granger cause of the number of postgraduates in study,on the contrary,it is also established to some extent.The empirical research conclusioas provide important implications for the future setting of the specific relationship between the two research variables of postgraduate education scale and economic development level.