制度质量与短期国际资本流动——基于23个新兴市场国家和地区的经验研究

Institutional Quality and Short-Term International Capital Flows——Empirical Research Based on 23 Emerging Market Countries and Regions

本文以23个新兴市场国家和地区2002-2017年的数据为样本,估计制度质量对短期国际资本流动的影响。研究发现:一个国家(地区)的综合制度质量与短期资本流入存在着显著的正向关系;进一步分析发现,经济、政治、法律制度质量也会对短期国际资本的流入产生积极影响;该结论也通过了稳健性检验。因此,改善制度质量、保护投资者权利等措施有利于促进国际资本流入,各国政府应当通过合理控制宏观因素以有效管控短期资本流动,防范系统性金融风险。

Based on the data of 23 emerging market countries and regions from 2002 to 2017,this paper estimated the impact of institutional quality on short-term international capital flows. The study finds that comprehensive institutional quality in certain country(region) has positive correlation with short-term capital inflows. Further analysis finds that the quality of economic system,political system and legal institutions also positively affects short-term international capital inflows. Meanwhile,robustness test has passed significant test. Therefore,the improvement of institutional quality and the strengthening of the protection for investors’ rights are both beneficial for international capital inflows. For governments,they should effectively control short-term capital flows and prevent systemic financial risk by controlling macro-factors reasonably.