基于消费者理性预期的线上零售供应链退款保证策略

Money-Back Guarantees of the Online Retailers Based on Consumer Rational Expectations

考虑到消费者线上购买以及退货的行为,由制造商和线上零售商组成的供应链会受到消费者行为的影响.本文通过一个制造商-线上零售商博弈模型研究了供应链最优定价、促销努力水平决策以及退款保证策略.在消费者理性行为的假设下,我们也考察了退款保证对消费者购买行为、消费者剩余以及供需双方利润的影响.研究发现,线上零售商促销会导致产品销售价格的上升,并导致消费者剩余的损失;而退款保证则会促使线上零售商降低促销努力水平,并使得线上零售商和制造商利润均减少;最后,由于消费者需要为退款保证服务支付一定的溢价,因此在一定条件下退款保证可能降低消费者剩余.

Considering consumers’ online purchase and return behavior, the supply chain consisting of manufacturers and online retailers is influenced by consumer behavior. This paper uses a manufacturer-retailer game model to study the optimal product pricing, promotional effort and money-back guarantees strategies. Under the assumption of rational consumer behavior, we also assess the implications of the money-back guarantee strategies on the consumer’s purchasing behavior, consumer surplus and profits of the enterprises in the market. We find that the promotional effort would lead to a higher price and further decreases the consumer surplus. The money-back guarantee strategy provided by online retailers decrease their motivation to provide other promotion services in turn and result in a decline in profits for both the manufacturers and online retailers. Finally, since the consumers have to pay a premium for extra services, the money-back guarantees service may decrease the consumer surplus.