渔业经济政策分析及展望

Analysis and Forecast on China’s Fishery Economy

近年,我国渔业经济坚持生态优先、绿色发展,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,渔业产值和产量稳定增长。2018年,渔民人均纯收入快速增加至近2万元、水产养殖量突破5000万吨、水产品市场交易量额双升和质量安全水平较高等。同时,受中美贸易摩擦、国际同构竞争、水产品竞争力下降等影响,贸易顺差继续收窄至74.6亿美元。基于“生态优先、绿色发展”的政策基础,“十四五”初期以前,渔业经济政策重点可能是水产养殖转型升级、加强资源与生态修复。至2020年,水产品产量增至6600万吨,其中养殖水产品继续增加、近海捕捞再次减量和远洋产量微增;渔民人均收入将超过2万元;水产品消费进一步升级,市场交易量额稳定,价格穗中略升;渔业开放度扩大,贸易顺差很可能持续收窄至40亿美元。

In 2018,the fishery policy focused on ecological priority and green development.With the supply-side structural reform as the main line,the fishery economy developed in an all-around way.The aquatic production and output increased steadily.The income growth of fishermen was high.Aquaculture yield increased to more than 50 million tons from 49 million tons last year.Both the market exchange volume and sum increased stably,and the quality and safety level of aquatic products was relatively high.At the same time,growth in imports was higher than exports because of Sino-US trade friction,international isomorphic competition as well as the decreased competitiveness of aquatic products.So the trade surplus continued to decrease to 7.46 billion US Dollars.Based on the former policy of"ecological priority and green development",the fishery economic orientation inclines to optimize the industrial structure,enhance the supply capacity of aquatic products,promote the transformation and upgrading of aquaculture,strengthen resources and ecological restoration,and adjust international trade and cooperation strategies.In 2019,aquatic products will be stable at 70 million tons,aquaculture yield will continue to increase,fishing yield in domestic marine will reduce again,prices will rise slightly,and the surplus will continue to lessen.