新疆维吾尔自治区2011-2018年手足口病发病与气象因素的相关性分析

Correlation analysis on meteorological factors regarding the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,2011-2018

目的分析新疆维吾尔自治区(新疆)手足口病发病与气象因素的相关性,为新疆手足口病的预警预测和防控提供科学依据。方法2011-2018年新疆手足口病疫情个案数据和同期人口数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统,气象数据来源于天气后报网(http://www.tianqihoubao.com.)。采用Excel 2007、SPSS 17.0软件对新疆手足口病发病数和气象因素进行相关性分析,采用ArcGIS 10.2软件绘制手足口病空间分布图。结果新疆手足口病发病主要集中在4-7月,5、6月是发病人数最多的月份;气温与新疆手足口病的发病呈正相关(r=0.370,P<0.01),降水量与手足口病的发病呈显著正相关(r=0.747,P<0.01);适宜新疆手足口病发病的气温阈值为5℃~35℃。新疆手足口病发病高峰和降水量高峰错峰1个月;降水量与手足口病发病数呈幂函数关系y=0.0094x^2.3329,R^2=0.8989。结论2011-2018年新疆手足口病发病与气温、降水量相关,可以考虑作为手足口病预警参数。

Objective To study the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang)so as to provide scientific evidence for the early warning,prediction,prevention and control of HFMD.Methods Data on HFMD surveillance and related population was collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2011 to 2018.Meteorological data was obtained from http://www.tianqihoubao.com.Correlation analysis on meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang was conducted,using the Excel 2007,SPSS 17.0,and Spatial Distribution Map by ArcGIS 10.2 software.Results HFMD usually occurred between April and July.Numbers of patients reached the top in May and June.Temperature was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD(r=0.370,P<0.01)while precipitation was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD(r=0.747,P<0.01).The temperature threshold appeared as 5℃-35℃for the incidence of HFMD.Interval period was one month between the peak of both the incidence of HFMD and the precipitation.A power function relationship(y=0.0094x^2.3329,R^2=0.8989)was noticed between the precipitation and the incidence of HFMD.Conclusions The incidence of HFMD was closely related to the meteorological factors including temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during 2011-2018.Our findings have provided evidence for the development of early warning system on HFMD in Xinjiang.