中国对外直接投资对“一带一路”沿线国家绿色全要素生产率的影响

Impact of China’s OFDI on Green Total Factor Productivity of Countries along the “Belt and Road”

绿色"一带一路"建设是"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分,但随着中国对沿线国家投资规模的迅猛增长,"中国污染转移论"也被大肆渲染。为了探寻中国对外直接投资(OFDI)与"一带一路"地区绿色发展的关系,文章基于DDF-GML指数系统测算了沿线56个国家的绿色全要素生产率,并运用双向固定效应模型、分位数回归模型和面板门限回归模型检验了中国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家绿色全要素生产率的影响。结果表明,中国OFDI显著促进了沿线东道国绿色全要素生产率的增长,但这种促进作用将随着东道国绿色全要素生产率的提升而逐渐减弱;同时,其他国家的整体投资则显著抑制了东道国绿色全要素生产率的提高。进一步的研究表明,中国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家绿色全要素生产率存在经济规模和人力资本的门槛效应。经济规模较大或人力资本充裕的国家,通过引进中国OFDI,将更有利于本国绿色全要素生产率的增长;反之,则作用效果并不明显。这一研究不仅有助于树立中国负责任投资大国的形象,而且正面回应了国际社会对中国投资动机的质疑,为绿色"一带一路"倡议的深入实施提供了经验证据。

FDI is an important channel for technical communication and a common method for pollution transfer. With the rapid growth in investment to the "Belt and Road"region, how China’s OFDI affects the green total factor productivity of countries in that region is not only a common concern of the international community, but also directly determines whether the "Green Belt and Road" initiative can be further advanced. In this paper, the directional distance function considering undesired output is used under the DEA framework, and the green total factor productivity of 56 countries in that region is measured by using the Global MalmquistLuenberger productivity index. On this basis, the paper utilizes the two-way fixed effect model,quantile regression model and panel threshold regression model to test the effect of China’s OFDI on green total factor productivity of different countries. The paper concludes that: First,China’s OFDI has significantly promoted the growth of green total factor productivity in host countries, while the overall investment from other countries has significantly inhibited the growth of green total factor productivity in host countries. Second, by attracting China’s OFDI, absorbing and assimilating China’s advanced technologies, there has been a strong boost to the growth of green total factor productivity in the countries which rank the last 60% in the green total factor productivity;contrastively, for the top 40% countries, China’s direct investment has not promoted local green economic development significantly. Third, China’s OFDI has a threshold effect of economic scale and human capital on regional green total factor productivity, but the difference in infrastructure quality has not caused the nonlinear impact of China’s OFDI on the green total factor productivity of countries. Even so, promoting infrastructure construction will indeed help to strengthen the resource integration and accelerate the development of green economy in the"Belt and Road" region, and this also reflects the value of the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank under the "Belt and Road" initiative. To sum up, this research not only positively responds to the doubts about China’s investment motives, and dispels the"anxiety" of countries along the line, but also lays the foundation for China to establish the image of a responsible investment entity.