在线复合评论：“众口难调”“行合趋同”抑或“金无足赤”——基率信息和偏好差异性的调节效应研究

The Contingent Effect of Composite Online Reviews on Online Sales: Study on Boundary Conditions of Base-rate Information and Preference Variance

与以往独立或对比分析初次评论或追加评论营销效果不同,本文基于归因理论和详尽可能性模型,从系统性和整体性出发,以某品牌小型家电天猫旗舰店为研究对象,以由初次评论和追加评论构成的在线复合评论为切入点,在挖掘分析主题模型的基础上,基于Aellano-Bond模型的广义矩法(GMM),充分考虑产品价格、价格波动、产品推广、标题优化等因素,分析了在线复合评论中不同内容属性的信息结构和消费者偏好差异性,以及在线复合评论对在线销售影响的边界条件。结果发现,基于内在属性、物流服务的基率信息弱化了其效价对在线销售的影响,基于外在属性的基率信息强化了效价对在线销售的影响,基于物流服务的基率信息弱化了评价数量对效价的影响,而基于内外属性的基率信息强化了该效果。消费者偏好差异性弱化了基于外在属性的效价对产品销量的影响,却强化了评价数量的营销效果。本文推进了在线复合评论研究的发展进程,为企业网络口碑管理提供了一定的指导。

Compared to the existing researches that take the initial reviews or the additional reviews as research object and analyzes their different marketing effect, this paper focuses on the composite online reviews, and discusses its influence on online sales. It has an important significance to the online reviews management. Based on the attribution theory and Elaboration Likelihood Model, the volume and valence of online composite reviews as the independent variables, the online sales as the dependent variable, the based-rate information and preference variance as moderator variables, we put forward the specific research questions. Then we take small household appliances as research object and collect the data from Tmall flagship store. On the base of topic mining, using the Arellano and Bond GMM estimator, we control on the effect of price, price fluctuation, product promotion, title optimization and other factors, and then analyze the conditional effect of online composite reviews on online sales. The results as follows: Firstly, the based-rate information of intrinsic properties and logistics service weaken the effects of valence on online sales. However, the based-rate information of extrinsic properties strengthen this effect. Meanwhile the based-rate information of logistics service weaken the effects of volume on online sales, but the based-rate information of intrinsic and extrinsic properties strengthen this effect. Secondly, consumer preference variance weaken the valence of extrinsic properties on online sales, but it strengthen the volume’s effect. The above findings revealed the relationship between online composite reviews and online sales. The contribution of this study is as follows: first, taking the initial reviews and the additional reviews as whole, this paper studies the moderate effects of content attributes and information structure, which enriched the existing research. Second, from the perspective of "from the outside to the inside", taking the topic models, this paper explores the components of online composite reviews, which provides an effective method for the research of online word-ofmouth. This paper offers insights into how to enhance online sales by understanding the conditional effect of the base-rate information and consumer preference variance. The structure and content attribute of online composite reviews appears important for online word-of-mouth. Therefore, online markers should pay attention to them.