如何看美联储的花式操作？——“有机扩表+短端收益率控制”政策评析

Analysis of the Fed’s Organic Balance Sheet Expansion and Controlling Short-term Yields

本文主要讨论近期美联储的"有机扩表+短端收益率控制"政策的具体内容、目的和经济影响。首先回顾了历史上的几次收益率曲线控制政策,并重点分析日央行的"QQE+长端收益率控制"政策及效果,再结合美国经济与金融市场形势分析美联储"有机扩表+短端收益率控制"政策的真正目的,同时展望政策对实体经济的影响以及美债收益率曲线的走势。

This paper discusses the content, purpose and economic impact of the Fed’s policy of "organic balance sheet expansion and controlling short-term yields". First, it reviews several historical yield curve control policies, focusing on the Bank of Japan’s policy of "quantitative and qualitative easing and controlling long-term yields". It analyzes the real purpose of the Fed’s organic balance sheet expansion and controlling short-term yields by examining the US economic and financial market situation. It also looks ahead at the possible impact of the policy on the real economy and what it means for the US bond yield curve.