基于土地利用模型的沈阳市建成区扩展分析预测

Extended Forecast Based on Analysis of Land Use Models Built in Shenyang

近年城市化迅猛发展对土地资源的可持续发展形成了制约,为了能够有效平衡城市建成区和社会发展的关系,本文利用ArcGIS从沈阳市两期影像数据入手,联合统计数据进行城市扩展分析,提取出扩张强度指标、城市重心坐标、城市紧凑度指标、城市用地分形维数等一些指标,并利用灰色关联模型确定影像建设用地规模的主要因素,分析沈阳市建成区扩张规律,利用土地利用模型(MLU)预测得到沈阳市建设用地规模将在2084年到达极限,从而为政府决策和城市发展提供科学的依据。

In recent years,the rapid development of urbanization has restricted the sustainable development of land resources. In order to effectively balance the relationship between urban built-up areas and social development,this paper uses ArcGIS to analyze urban expansion data from two phases of Shenyang City and joint statistical data. Some indicators such as expansion intensity index,city center of gravity coordinates,urban compactness index,urban land fractal dimension,etc.,and use gray correlation model to determine the main factors of image construction land scale,analyze the expansion law of Shenyang built-up area,and use land use model( MLU) It is predicted that the scale of construction land in Shenyang will reach its limit in 2084,providing a scientific basis for government decision-making and urban development.