生长季气候对嘉兴地区小麦生产的影响研究

Effect of climate during wheat growing season on production of wheat in Jiaxing

依据嘉兴市气象站1953—2017年的逐日气候资料,分析历年来小麦生长季(每年11月1日至翌年5月31日)的气候特点;采用同期嘉兴地区小麦单产资料,分析生长季气候条件对本地区小麦生产尤其是赤霉病发生的影响。结果表明:自20世纪90年代开始,嘉兴地区小麦生长季的平均温度呈上升趋势(+0.03℃/年),降水总量没有明显变化,日照时数和降水日数呈减少趋势,多雨、潮湿、寡照的逆境条件并没有因气候趋暖而得到改善。气候条件年度之间变化对小麦气候产量影响较大,波动范围在-1115.25—1127.38 kg/hm^2,小麦平均单产较大幅度的提高主要得益于栽培技术的提高和品种的改良更新。每年4月15日-5月15日降水量与小麦赤霉病发病程度之间呈正相关(r=0.459)。赤霉病发病程度与气候产量的负相关性(r=-0.53)高于与总产量的负相关性(r=-0.42)。建议在培育和引进抗赤霉病品种的同时,适度控制小麦在种植业结构中的规模。

Characteristics of climate during wheat growing season(from November 1 st to next May 31 st)in Jiaxing City,Zhejiang Province were analyzed using the local daily climatic data from 1953 to 2017.Effect of climate during wheat growing season on wheat yield and wheat scab was estimated.The results indicate that the temperature during wheat growing season from 1990,s has sustainably increased at a speed of 0.03℃/year,in company with reduction of both the sunshine duration in hours and rainy days.The stressful climate conditions for wheat yield,such as warming winter,lack of sunshine,humid weather,and high temperature,have not been ameliorated by the climate change.Moreover,the change of climate has more significant effect on the variations in climate yiela,ranging from-1115.25 to 1127.38 kg/hm^2.This large variability in climate yield indicates the increase of wheat yield in Jiaxing City is mainly due to the improvement of cultivation techniques and renovation of varieties.There is a positive correlation between precipitation from April 15 th to May 15 th and wheat scab disease severity(r=0.459).The correlation between wheat scab disease severity and climate yield is higher than that between wheat scab disease severity and yield.We argue that to main the sustainability of agriculture in Jiaxing City,it is equally important to breed and import wheat scab resistant varieties as well as decreasing sown area of wheat.