贫困的区域关联与减贫潜能的溢出效应——以四川民族地区为例

Regional Linkage of Poverty and the Spatial Spillover Effects on Poverty Reduction:Taking the Ethnic Areas of Sichuan Province as Examples

使用探索性空间数据分析工具研究了2010~2017年间四川少数民族地区贫困发生率的空间分布格局与特征,构建减贫溢出项并通过空间计量模型来进一步考察民族地区减贫的空间溢出效应。结果表明:一方面,四川民族地区贫困分布存在着显著的全域空间关联性,并且这种相关性随着空间距离增大而减弱,随着时间的推移整体上在降低;另一方面,局域相关性也显示出民族地区局域性的空间集聚特征越来越明显,各县域的贫困程度趋于均衡。回归结果显示,减贫潜能每增长1%,县域贫困发生率将降低1.161个百分点。这意味着空间溢出效应是四川民族地区反贫困中不可忽视的重要影响因素。同时,人口增长、经济发展、就业水平、劳动生产效率、政府行为、储蓄水平和基础设施均在不同程度上影响着民族地区的贫困发生率。

Based on the ESDA tools,the purpose of this paper is to investigate the feature of poverty linkage and the spatial correlation of poverty incidence among the ethnic areas of Sichuan from 2010 to 2017.We find that there exists positive spatial autocorrelation in the whole region,and this autocorrelation has been decreasing since 2010.Mean while,the local correlation is gradually being shown,and the poverty degree of each county tends to be balanced.The empirical analysis shows that the spatial spillover effect is important to the poverty reduction in ethnic areas of Sichuan.1%increase of poverty reduction potential decreases the poverty rate of county level by 1.161%.Meanwhile,the in crease of population,economic development,employment levels,labor productivity,government behaviour,saving lev els and infrastructure can play an important role in poverty reduction in ethnic areas.