生育、技术进步与产出

Fertility,Technical Progress and Output

在全面二孩政策背景下,基于部分学者的顾虑,放松生育管控下多生育会挤占人均产出,影响技术进步和产业升级。通过构建一个要素内生的OLG模型,进行推理发现,生育不仅增加了未来的劳动供给,更重要的是,还可能改善未来的要素配置效率,增加储蓄和资本存量,进而提高了未来的产出和人均产出。基于中国样本,从唯像层次上发现,20年前出生人数与20年以后全要素生产率、产出以及人均产出增长率在趋势上基本上一致,这意味着生育可能具有乘数效应。本文意义在于,为下一步出台生育补贴制度提供经验和理论基础。生育政策不仅是重要的人口政策,可能还是重要的科技与产业政策。

In the key period of comprehensive two-child policy background,based on some scholars concerns that the relaxation of birth control will produce impact on technological progress and industrial upgrading.By constructing an endogenous OLG model,it is found that the current relaxation of birth control will not only increase the number and total output of future generations,but also improve the future total factor productivity and per capita output.In order to obtain evidence for the above proposition,phenomenological analysis using data of two generations shows that the fer tility level of the previous generation has a positive effect on the total factor productivity of the next generation.The present model is based on the future dividend of fertility and the positive externalities of fertility of family fertility under urbanization.The significance of this study is that one provides an extensible endogenous framework that analyzes the effects of fertility on technology and output.The fertility policy is not only an important population policy,but also an important science and technology and industry policy.