喀什市居民生育意愿与影响因素的分析

On the Fertility Desire and Influencing Factors of City Residents in Kashgar

从中心-外围的空间视角,利用统计年鉴、人口普查资料和实地调查问卷,采用人口结构化指数和多元有序logistic模型回归方法,对喀什市人口空间分布的集散程度进行空间可视化表达,调查分析喀什市居民生育意愿及影响因素.结果显示:(1)喀什市人口分布具有中心-外围的圈层结构特征,人口向城区集中,但外围仍具有相对凝固化的现象,活跃度处于较低水平;(2)喀什市居民理想子女数具有中心-外围的特征,其分布以2孩的比例占绝对优势,仍保留着较高的生育意愿,老城区居民理想子女数最多,郊区的最少;(3)理想子女性别偏好以"一男一女"为主,但新城区居民男孩偏好较显著;(4)喀什市居民生育意愿受年龄、文化水平、族别、职业、是否了解二孩政策、养育孩子的费用、个人意愿和社会风气等多重因素影响.

From the central-peripheral spatial perspective,and by use of the Statistical Yearbook(1990-2017),census data,and on-the-spot resident survey questionnaires in Kashgar,the population structure indices and the multivariate ordered logistic model regression method were employed to give a spatial visual representation of Kashgar City for its population spatial distribution,attempting to find out about the city residents’fertility desire and the relevant influencing factors.It is found:(1)The population distribution of Kashi City has the characteristics of the central-peripheral circular structure,and the population is concentrating towards the urban area,but the periphery is still relatively solidified with a rather low activity;(2)the ideal number of children an average kashgar family wants to have is found to be of the central-peripheral feature,with the overwhelming majority of families having two children.The fertility willingness of people remains high.The residents of the old city areas have the biggest ideal number of children and people in the suburbs have the smallest ideal number of children;(3)in terms of the child gender,people have a general preference of one son plus one daughter combination,yet in new city area,people have a son preference;(4)the fertility willingness of residents in Kashgar depends on age,cultural level,ethnicity,occupation,people’s understanding of the two-child policy,the raising cost,and the individual willingness and social ethos.