基于失望理论的零售商订货与广告联合决策

Joint ordering and advertising decision based on the disappointment theory

针对考虑失望规避与欣喜寻求行为的零售商订货与广告联合决策问题,给出了一种基于优化模型的决策分析方法.在该方法中,采用一种线性效用函数刻画了失望规避与欣喜寻求行为效用,并依据失望理论,构建了考虑失望规避与欣喜寻求行为的零售商订货与广告联合决策效用模型.进一步地,通过模型求解确定了零售商的最优订货量与最优广告努力水平,并分析了零售商预期收益参数、失望规避参数和欣喜寻求参数对最优决策结果的影响.研究结果表明,零售商的预期收益、失望规避程度和欣喜寻求程度均会不同程度地影响其最优订货量与最优广告努力水平,且针对具有不同心理预期收益的零售商,失望规避程度和欣喜寻求程度对其最优订货量与最优广告努力水平的影响是不同的.因此,在实际的订货与广告联合决策中,具有失望规避与欣喜寻求行为特征的零售商需要同时考虑心理预期收益、失望规避程度和欣喜寻求程度对其最优订货量与广告努力水平的影响.

In this paper,a decision analysis method based on the optimization model is proposed to solve the joint ordering and advertising decision problem considering disappointment aversion and elation seeking of retailers.A linear disappointment-elation utility function is used to capture disappointment aversion and elation seeking of retailers.According to the disappointment theory,a joint ordering and advertising decision model considering disappointment aversion and elation seeking is constructed,and the optimal order quantity and advertising effort of retailers are obtained by solving the model.The effects of expected profit parameter,disappointment aversion parameter and elation seeking parameter on the optimal decision result are analyzed.The results show that expected profit,disappointment aversion degree and elation seeking degree of retailers will affect the optimal order quantity and advertising effort to different degrees,and that for retailers with different expected profits,the impacts of the disappointment aversion and elation seeking on the optimal order quantity and advertising effort are different.Hence,if retailers exhibit disappointment aversion and elation seeking,they need to consider the impacts of expected profit,disappointment aversion and elation seeking simultaneously on their optimal policy.