中国赴东盟旅游流重心移动轨迹及旅游市场态分析

A Study on the Gravity Center Trajectory of the Tourist Flow from China to ASEAN and Its Market Form

本文引入重心模型及旅游市场态模型,分析2002年—2016年中国赴东盟旅游流重心移动轨迹及旅游市场态变化特点。结果表明:(1)中国赴东盟旅游流重心主要集聚在泰国湾和磅逊湾区域,旅游流重心大体呈现先向南移动,再向北折回,此后又向南移动的规律。中国游客早期主要集中流向“新马泰”3个旅游市场成熟的东盟国家。(2)泰国、新加坡、马来西亚和越南在金牛市场和明星市场波动;柬埔寨、缅甸由瘦狗市场上升为幼童市场;老挝、菲律宾、印度尼西亚在瘦狗市场和幼童市场波动。(3)中国赴东盟旅游流重心移动轨迹与东盟各国旅游市场态变化相互印证,两者变化规律相一致;中国赴东盟旅游流重心轨迹移动方向受旅游市场增长率影响。

This study used gravity model and market form model of tourism system to calculate the coordinate of the gravity center of the tourist flow from China to ASEAN and evolutionary features of the market form of tourism system by applying the data of 2002 to 2016.The results show:(1)the gravity centers of tourist flows from China to ASEAN in 2002 to 2016 amass within Thailand Gulf and Kompong Som Bay with the tourist flow gravity centers generally taking a southward-northward-southward pattern,and Chinese tourists,at early stage,mainly moved to Singapore,Malaysia and Thailand,which are three mature tourism destinations;(2)Thailand,Singapore,Malaysia and Vietnam waved on the Cash Cow market and the Stars market,Cambodia and Myanmar rose from the Dog market to Children market;and Laos,the Philippines,and Indonesia fluctuated on the Lean Dog and Children markets;(3)gravity centers of the tourist flow and the market form from China to ASEAN are closely related and consistent with the changes,with the growth rate of tourism market playing an obvious role in pulling the moving directions of the centers.