采用联系数与蒙特卡洛模拟的规模化电动汽车充电负荷预测

Charging Load Prediction of Large-Scale Electric Vehicle Based on Contact Number and Monte Carlo Simulation

电动汽车的充电负荷受到很多不确定因素的影响,且在负荷和这些因素之间建立模型较为困难。引入联系数来客观、合理表述影响电动汽车充电负荷的因素,同时考虑电动汽车规模与类型、电池容量、充电模式、用户充电习惯以及充电频率等因素预测电动汽车的充电负荷,为电网的安全运行与优化调度提供参考。

The charging load of electric vehicles is affected by many uncertain factors,and it is difficult to establish a model between the load and these factors.In this paper,the contact number was introduced to objectively and rationally described the factors affecting the charging load of electric vehicles.Meanwhile,factors such as the size and type of electric vehicles,battery capacity,charging mode,charging habits of users and charging frequency were taken into account to predict the charging load of electric vehicles,so as to provide reference for the safe operation and optimal scheduling of power grid.