Y型航道内船舶交通流量的非线性特征研究

Research on Nonlinear Characteristics of Ship Flow in Y-Type Waterway

针对Y型航道管理中需要掌握船舶交通流量的基本特征问题,基于历史数据,构建了船舶交通流量时间序列,利用时间延迟、最大Lyapunov指数和递归图验证了序列具有混沌特征.通过计算关联维数,证明了序列具有分形特征.研究结果表明 Y型航道内船舶交通流量时间序列具有非线性特征,由于时间间隔的不同,非线性的强弱也不相同,其中时间间隔为30 min时,序列的非线性特征最明显,随着时间间隔增大,系统的非线性特征逐渐减弱.

In order to explore the basic characteristics of ship traffic flow in Y-type waterway,ship traffic flow time series is constructed based on historical data,and nonlinear characteristics of the series are verified by using time delay,the maximum Lyapunov exponent and recursive graph. Then they are proved that the series have fractal characteristics by calculating correlation dimension. Results show that time series of ship traffic flow in Y-type waterway have nonlinear characteristics,and these nonlinear characteristics are different because of different time intervals,among them,nonlinear characteristics is most obvious when time interval is 30 min;With time interval increasing,the system nonlinear characteristics is gradually decreasing.