危机与应对:战后日本宏观经济政策理论的过渡与交替

Crisis and Response: Transition and Alternation of Japan’s Macroeconomic Policy Theory after World War Ⅱ

战后为应对每一次经济危机,日本政府均实施了相应的宏观经济政策。这些政策依次更迭是基于三个传统意义上的宏观经济基本理论,即凯恩斯主义、新自由主义,以及理性预期学派经济学说的过渡与交替。随着历史条件和经济周期的不断变化,为应对危机,国家干预或经济自由主义交替运用。当前,世界经济运行制度体系进入了一个转变的时点,国际贸易保护主义有所抬头,且其趋势愈演愈烈,中国作为世界第二大经济体深陷其中,需要我们在考虑经济与政治的框架内探索新的理论创新方式,以实现经济平稳健康发展。然而创新源于“历史的逻辑的东西”,因此,反思历史的经济思维对指导当前具有重要意义,日本宏观经济理论的过渡与交替就为我们的探索提供了有益的历史经验与教训。

After World WarⅡ,Japan’s macroeconomic policies theories transition and alternation not only presented the trait of inheritance from tradition but also showed the reform and enrichment of the tradition from 1945 to 1990.In Japan,three traditional macro economic theories:Keynesianism,Neoliberalism and rational expectation school are successively amended and improved after entering the recovery period.In dominant period of each theory,the relationships among these three theories were expressed as mutual exclude and overlapping.Japan’s history itself and economy characteristics of real economy could explain the reasons for the phenomenon.The research on the transition and alternation of Japan’s macro economy theories is intend to clarify the laws when the theory system was affected by the external and comply with the law to ensure the normal working of the economic system.According to characteristics and track of the Japan’s three macro economic theories,it is expected that three macro theories would keep the trend of continuous development,which is the presentation of reversion of things development and it is not a simple return but the negative negation.In order to keep Japan’s economy system normal operation,it is needed to strengthen the coordination between the fiscal policy and currency policy;government should establish a reasonable policy law for a stable expectation instead of discretion of fiscal policy and currency policy;when there lies contradiction between the international policies coordination and domestic policies goals,autonomy and rational countermeasures should be taken.