基于证据理论的微型消防站等级评定标准

Grade evaluation standard of micro-fire stations based on evidence theory

提出基于证据理论的微型消防站安全保障等级评价方法。建立包括"人、器材、制度"三方面的微型消防站安全等级评价指标体系;在此基础上,计算各个评价因素的上、下界极限,将一般评价中遇到的不确定结果进行可靠的数值转换,从而量化评价结果;采用证据融合,综合考虑不同专家给出的多组检查结果在微型消防站安全保障等级评价中的可信度,提高最终评分的可靠程度。实例分析社区微型消防站,运用证据理论,通过较好地量化与融合不确定性风险因素,最终建立较为完善合理的微型消防站的安全保障评价体系。

A method of evaluating the safety level of the micro-fire station based on evidence theory is proposed. The safety grade evaluation index system of micro-fire station including "people,equipment, system" is established. On this basis, the upper and lower limits of each evaluation factor are calculated, and the uncertain results encountered in the general evaluation are reliably converted, thus quantify the evaluation results;using evidence fusion,considering the reliability of multi-group inspection results given by different experts in the evaluation of safety assurance grade of micro-fire station, the reliability of the final score is improved.The example analyzes the community micro-fire station, uses the evidence theory, through the good quantification and the fusion uncertainty risk factor, finally establishes the more perfect reasonable micro-fire station’s safety assurance appraisal system.