基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源与水环境系统模拟分析

Simulation Analysis of Water Resources and Water Environment System in Tai’an Based on System Dynamics Model

运用系统动力学模型对泰安市水资源与水环境系统进行了模拟和预测。通过对供水总量与需水总量、纳污能力与污染物排放量的对比,得出在趋势型情景下,泰安市水资源供需比与水环境纳污-排放比将持续下降,表明泰安市未来将面临水资源短缺与水环境恶化的风险。为避免此情况发生,设定可达型与规划型情景对模型参数进行调整。结果显示,相比趋势型情景,2030年泰安市在可达型与规划型情景下,需水总量分别下降了10%与16%,化学需氧量分别下降了30%与55%,氨氮排放量分别下降了37%与60%。水资源供需比在可达型与规划型情景下将达到0.89与1.06,水环境纳污-排放比由化学需氧量与氨氮表征。其中化学需氧量纳污-排放比在可达型与规划型情景下将达到0.93与1.43,氨氮纳污-排放比将达到0.75与1.18。说明可达型情景可以基本满足城市发展的需要,而规划型情景则可以在未来实现城市水资源供需平衡与水环境改善。

The system dynamics model was used to simulate and predict the water resources and water environment system in Tai'an. Compared total water supply with total water demand, pollution capacity with pollutant emissions, it is concluded that under the trend scenario, the water supply and demand ratio and water environment capacity and pollution emissions ratio in Tai'an would continue to decline. It is indicated that there would be risks of water shortages and deterioration of the water environment in the future of Tai'an. To avoid this situation, the reachable and planned scenarios was set to adjust the model parameters. The results show that compared with the trend scenario, the total water demand decreased by 10% and 16%, respectively, the chemical oxygen demand emissions decreased emissions by 30% and 55%, respectively, Ammonia emissions decreased by 37% and 60%, respectively, under the reachable and planned scenarios, in 2030, in Tai'an. The water supply and demand ratio will reach 0.89 and 1.06 in the reachable and planned scenarios, and the water environment capacity and pollution emissions ratio is characterized by chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen. The chemical oxygen demand will reach 0.93 and 1.43,and the ammonia nitrogen will reach 0.75 and 1.18. It is concluded that the reachable scenario can basically meet the needs of urban development, while the planning scenario can achieve the balance of supply and demand of urban water resources and the improvement of water environment in the future.