基于易感者-染病者-易感者的时变机场网络延误传播模型

Time-varying Airport Network Delay Propagation Model Based on Susceptible-infective-susceptible

为宏观角度分析机场网络延误传播机理,基于复杂网络易感者-染病者-易感者(susceptible-infective-susceptible,SIS)传染病模型建立了延误传播模型。从机场网络延误传播的时变性和与SIS传染病模型的相似性入手,以机场为节点,定义了其在机场网络延误传播过程里存在的不同状态,依据节点状态间的转变机理,建立机场网络延误传播动力学模型,并根据航班时刻规划航班流运输路径。以全国153个机场为例,采集航班延误数据,进行模型仿真并分析实验参数。结果表明:机场网络延误节点的延误影响范围有限,且网络对延误的传播能力具有一定的抑制性,很少出现全网的崩溃现象;该模型具有有效性和实用性,可以较好地仿真实际延误的传播过程。

In order to analyze the mechanism of airport network delay propagation from a macro perspective,a delay propagation model was established based on the complex network susceptible-infective-susceptible(SIS)infectious disease model.Starting from the similarity between the time-varying airport network delay propagation and the SIS infectious disease model,the airports were built as nodes to establish a network.The different states of airport nodes in the process of airport network delay propagation was defined.Airport network delay propagation dynamics model was established based on the transition mechanism between node states.Flight flow path was planned based on flight schedule.By taking 153 airports nationwide as an example,flight delay data were collected,model simulation was performed and experimental parameters were analyzed.The results show that the delay of the delay of the airport network is limited.The network will inhibit the propagation of delays and will not cause the collapse of the entire network.The model is effective and practical,and can simulate the actual delay of the propagation process.