中国石油消费情景与峰值分析

China’s oil consumption scenario and peak analysis

在总结国际上不同国家影响石油消费的主要因素基础上,采用情景分析研究方法,从增长动力、环境约束、能源安全和新能源机遇等角度,通过设定不同模型参数和条件假设,模拟了基准情景、强化政策情景、温控情景下中国石油消费需求。采用“自下而上”和“自上而下”相结合方法,对交通运输、石化及其他用油部门,以及对汽油、柴油、化工轻油等细分石油品种的未来需求进行了详细分析。

On the basis of the main factors affecting oil consumption in different countries in the world,by setting different parameters and condition assumptions,China's oil consumption demands in the baseline scenario,strengthened policy scenario,temperature control scenario were simulated by the method of scenario analysis from the perspectives of momentum,environmental constraints,energy security and new energy opportunity.The future demands of petroleum segments such as transportation,petrochemical and other oil sectors,gasoline,diesel and chemical light oil were analyzed in detail by means of a combination of "bottom-up" and "top-down" methods.