中美战略竞争与未来国际秩序的转换

The Sino-American Strategic Competition and the Transformation of the International Order

崛起国能否在不改变现行国际秩序的情况下实现对守成国的实力赶超和国际秩序领导权的转换是学界非常关注的问题。在现行秩序下,崛起国可以在一定程度上缩小与守成国的实力差距,但“崛起困境”理论告诉我们,崛起国与守成国的实力差距越小,守成国对崛起国施加的压力越大。守成国将利用现行秩序赋予其的一切制度优势和领导权威压制崛起国物质性权力和制度性权力的增长,崛起国追平守成国变得极为困难,而大幅度地超越守成国将更加困难。现行国际秩序对崛起国的效用将逐步下降使崛起国不得不考虑国际秩序的改革问题。崛起国对于权力占优型和权力独占型国际制度有较高的或强烈的改革要求,改革方式包括“改制”和“建制”,以不同程度地增强自己的领导权。因此,崛起国不是在崛起完成后才考虑现实国际秩序的改革,而是在崛起过程中就已经逐渐地改革现行国际秩序。崛起国与守成国实力差距越小,两者对秩序领导权的争夺就越激烈,现行国际秩序被改变的力度就越大。

The strategic competition between China and the United States is in full swing.A research question that comes with it is whether the rising power can catch up with the status-quo power and assume leadership of the international order without transforming the existing international order.Under the existing order,the rising power can narrow the power gap with status-quo power to a certain extent.However,according to the Rise Dilemma theory,the smaller the power gap is,the greater pressure the rising power has.The status-quo power will make use of all the institutional advantages and leading authority entrusted to it by the existing order to suppress the growth of the material strength and institutional strength of the rising power.It is extremely difficult for the rising power to draw level with the status-quo power,let alone surpassing it by a large margin.For the utility of the existing international order on the rising power will be gradually reduced,the rising power has to consider reforming the international order.The rising power has strong demand to reform the Power-Edged and the Power-Monopolized international institutions.It tries to grasp more leadership in terms of reforming and establishing international institutions.Thus,instead of considering the reform of international order after having realized its rise,the rising power will transform the order gradually in its rising process.Without the reform,it cannot rise successfully.The narrower the power gap between the rising power and the status-quo power is,the fiercer the contention for the leadership of the order between them will be.