解构“中国外交强势论”——基于国家角色理论的实证分析

Deconstructing the “China’s New Assertiveness”:Empirical Analysis based on National Role Theory

自2009年以来,随着中国的崛起,其在国际和地区事务中发挥的作用日益凸显,国内外学界关于中国外交政策转型的讨论也日益增多.西方学界普遍将中国的外交转型定性为“强势”,且认为这种“强势”在很大程度上是不利于国际社会的和平与稳定.文章以国家角色理论为分析视角,通过对21世纪以来中国国务院历年政府工作报告以及外交部就中国海洋领土争端问题答记者问的内容进行分析,总结归纳出中国国家角色定位及实践的特点和变化.研究结果表明,国外现有研究表现出其现实主义偏见和案例选择的偏见,同时也缺乏中观视角和比较分析.21世纪以来,中国国家角色主体定位具有原则性及稳定性,其长期对中国国家角色的实践产生着规范性和约束性作用.另外,通过对中国处理与周边国家海洋领土争端问题这一“极值”案例的分析可以看出,中国在延续以往克制性行为实践的同时,也正在顺应国际形势的变化,显现出合法、合理的防御性政策微调.这也有力反驳了“中国外交强势论”的相关观点.基于对“中国外交强势论”的实证检验,文章进一步分析了该论调在西方盛行的原因,并试图对中国在“中国外交强势论”这一问题上的应对之策提出可行性建议.

Western academics generally characterize China’s diplomacy as increasingly“assertive”and argue that this is not conducive to peace and stability in the international community.However,this article argues that the existing research in the western world present a bias in favor of realist theories and in terms of case selection,and lacks medium and comparative analysis.The article finds that since the 21st century.China has maintained a principled and stable position,which over the long term has provided normalization and constraint to China’s national role performance.Based on these findings,the article goes on to explore what has caused the discourse to be such popular in the West,offering some policy suggestions as to how China might respond to this.