量化史学视角下中国统计组织史研究

Research on the History of Chinese Statistical Organizations from the Perspective of Quantitative Historiography

以量化史学为指导思想,以结构熵为具体方法,对中国统计组织史进行了探索性研究。通过梳理从夏朝到新中国统计组织变迁的史料,发现有三个特征:从分散到独立,清末以后开始设立全国性最高统计机构;综合统计与业务统计并存;最高统计机构职权不断拓宽。之后,利用系统结构熵模型测算了各个时期统计组织信息流的有序度,结果表明:中国统计组织信息流有序度随朝代变迁逐步提高;新中国国家统计局下设机构大量增多,却能保持较高的信息流有序度。与国外统计组织对比,指出目前中国统计组织存在的问题及优势,建议建立全国统计协调委员会及在保持扁平化优势的前提下按照统计工作流程优化统计局内部机构设置。

Take quantitative historiography as the guiding ideology and the structural entropy as the specific method to conduct an exploratory research on the history of Chinese statistical organizations.By sorting out the historical materials of statistical organization from Xia Dynasty to the New China,three characteristics are found:a national highest statistical agency are set up from decentralized to independence since the late Qing Dynasty;Both the integrated statistics and business statistics exist,and the highest statistical agencies'power widens.The system structure entropy model are applied to measure the order of the statistical organization information flow in each period.The results show that,the order degree of information flow in statistical organizations of China gradually increases with dynastic transition.The New China National Statistical Bureau has a large number of organizations,but it can maintain a high degree of orderly information flow.In contrast with foreign statistical organizations,after pointing out the problems and advantages of statistical organizations in China,it is recommended to establish a national statistical coordination committee and optimize the internal structure of the statistical bureau according to the statistical workflow on the premise of maintaining the flattening advantage.