人口结构、行业盈利与行业股票回报

Demographics, Sector Earnings and Sector Stock Returns

本文将人口结构变迁所导致的消费需求变化、行业的盈利与行业股票的回报联系起来研究。具体来说,不同商品的消费者年龄结构会有不同。基于对未来人口结构的预测,能预测各个行业因人口结构变化所致的需求变化,进而预测行业的盈利状况。基于中国A股市场数据的实证结果表明,人口结构变迁信息的需求变化估计能很好地预测行业盈利水平,但无法很好地预测股票的未来回报。另外,本文没有发现基于人口结构变化构建的多空投资组合能获得超额回报。企业可以将人口信息用于决策来获得盈利,但是投机者却无法做到。

We investigate how population structure affects consumption patterns,industrial profitability and stock returns.The consumers of different goods are different in age profiles.Based on the forecasts of future populaion strueture,which provide valid information of potential future demands in different industrial,we conduct predictions on profitability and stock return.With the data from A-share stock market in China,we find that demands driven by the changes in population change can predict profitability on industrial level quite well,but can not predict stock returns.Moreover,the investment strategies based on the information of population forecasts don't generate abnormal returns.In other words,firm managers can use population forecasts in making decisions for higher profits but investors cannot use it for higher stock returns.