气候变化条件下滦河流域干旱影响因素相关性分析

Correlation Analysis for Factors Effecting on Drought in Basin of Luan River under Climate Variation

在全球气候变化条件下,利用偏相关分析法研究滦河流域干旱与气候变化主要影响因素间的相关性,识别出流域降水变化的主要影响因素。结果表明,气候主要影响因素AO与同时期滦河流域降水相关性较为显著;由于海洋温度对陆地降水变化的影响是一个复杂的水气相互作用的过程,WP、 NINO3.4及EP-NP与次年流域降水可能存在较为显著的相关性;不同气候变化影响因素对于滦河流域降水存在着一定的相互影响。其中,AO与P的相关性受EP-NP影响较为显著;西太平洋指数(WP)与流域降水相关性较为独立;EP-NP与NINO3.4指数对流域降水存在一定的相互影响。

In this paper,the author,applying analysis method of partial correlation,studied the correlation between drought and main factors effected by climate variation in Basin of Luan River,and identified the main factors effecting on precipitation variation in the basin.The result showed that the correlation between main effect factor AO and precipitation in same period in Luan River is relatively remarkable.Due to the effect on land precipitation by ocean temperature is a complicated process acting each other between water and air,the relatively remarkable correlation exists probably between WP,NINO3.4 and EP-NP and precipitation next year in the basin.There is a certain effecting each other on precipitation in the basin by effect factors under different climate variation.Among them,the correlation between AO and P is effected relatively remarkably,the correlation between index of West Pacific(WP) and precipitation in the basin is relatively independent,and the precipitation in the basin is certainly effected each other by EP-NP and index of NINO3.4.