产能过剩对信贷资源配置效率的影响——基于金融供给侧结构性改革的背景

The Impact of Capacity Utilization on Credit Allocation Efficiency:Based on Supply-Side Structural Reform of Finance

基于世界银行2012年中国企业调查的微观数据,综合运用Probit、Tobit、OLS方法从企业层面实证检验产能过剩对信贷资源配置效率的影响,并运用IV-Probit、IV-Tobit、2SLS法控制了模型的内生性问题。研究发现:产能过剩造成了信贷资源配置的扭曲;采用工具变量处理内生性问题后,结论依然成立;进一步的异质性检验表明,信贷资源错配情况在政企关系紧密、企业位于产能过剩行业和企业位于金融生态环境较差的地区时更为严重。鉴于此,应重视产能过剩的潜在金融风险,建立化解产能过剩的长效机制;银行部门应提高风险定价能力;政府部门要明确自身的行为边界,以纠正信贷资源错配。

Using the micro data of The People’s Republic of China 2012 Enterprise Survey from World Bank, this paper applies Probit, Tobit and OLS regression models to investigate the impact of overcapacity on the efficiency of credit allocation from the enterprise level. The endogenous problems of the models are controlled by IV-estimation strategy(IV-Probit, IV-Tobit and 2 SLS methods). Results indicate that: overcapacity had a significant negative impact on the efficiency of credit allocation, and the bank credit in China was misallocated;after using instrumental variables to deal with endogenous problems, the conclusion was still valid;additionally, the problem of credit misallocation was more serious when the relationship between government and enterprises was tight, enterprises came from overcapacity industries and enterprises were located in poor financial ecological environment regions of China.Therefore, we suggested that special attention should be paid to the potential financial risks of overcapacity and establish a long-term mechanism to resolve overcapacity problems. The bank should improve its risk pricing capability, and the government departments should define their own behavioral boundaries to correct credit misallocation.