旅游产业对区域经济增长的动力效应研究——基于地级市面板数据VAR脉冲响应分析

Research on the Driving Effect of Tourism Industry on Regional Economic Growth——Based on Prefecture-Level Cities’ Panel Data VAR Impulse-response Function

文章选取全国146个地级市行政区域为研究对象,按区域发展水平分组,采用面板数据向量自回归模型,从入境旅游和国内旅游两个角度分析旅游与经济增长的格兰杰因果关系和脉冲响应关系。实证研究发现,我国发达地区旅游产业的经济增长动力效应不显著;中等发展水平区域的入境旅游对经济增长的冲击效果显著;中等偏下发展水平地区国内旅游的经济增长动力效应显著,旅游与经济呈现相互促进的关系。

The paper chooses 146 administrative regions of prefecture-level city as research object,classifies them in terms of regional development level,and analyses the Granger causality and impulse-response relations of the tourism and economy on the perspectives of inbound tourism and domestic tourism using panel data vector auto-regression model.Positive research finds that,in developed regions,the driving effect of tourism on economic growth is not significant;in moderate development-level regions,the effect of shock of inbound tourism on economy is significant;and in sub-moderate development-level regions,the driving effect of domestic tourism on economic growth is significant,and the relation of tourism and economy is reciprocally promotive.